Comparing Version 21 to Version 22:
Comments:
\[2010-03-01, Devil Doll]
<br />
Without knowing how this series will proceed, just a few notes about the <i>many</i> warning signs shown in this episode:
* Lawrence claims that there are <i>no rules in a battle between merchants</i>, and considers himself advantageous as Amati <i>is said to</i> act like a knight. But whose word do we have for this? Only Mark's. So what if Amati is playing the game with the same rules, and has Mark on his side already? Mark hinted at Lawrence probably being much wealthier than himself, so Mark might even be jealous of Lawrence's success as trader.
* Lawrence purchases pyrite from Mark. But why would Mark sell the pyrite if he believes it to still rise in price? Mark is a merchant; why would he dispense with what looks like a huge profit for those in the know? This should be an alarm signal for Lawrence already. Mark attempted to purchase the nails from Lawrence for 10.5 rumiones at first, then agreed to pay 13.75 rumiones; it's not like he wouldn't swindle Lawrence when given the opportunity.
* Lawrence invests <i>his whole assets</i> from the nails sale into a risky business <small>(after Horo asked whether he has become a coward after the armor trade!)</small>. He still makes the same mistake as [episode:1710#8|in the first season], putting all his eggs into one basket. Won't he ever learn that this is mere gambling instead of serious trading? Actually, we don't know how much additional money he owns at this point but had he been wealthier he could have purchased a more expensive good to make better use of his available transport capacity.
* Lawrence has been celebrating while others were trading. While not making him a bad merchant in general, this put him into a situation of <i>information deficit</i>. Wasn't this the very reason why he failed at the armor trade? So he's making the same mistake in this aspect as well. And this time he even knows it! <i>"Fool me once, shame on you; Fool me twice, shame on me."</i>
* Lawrence purchases a good of which he <i>knows</i> it is effectively worthless and is aware of the "dairy maid boom" bubble that has already formed <small>(as the market price is already <i>way</i> higher than he assumed)</small>. But whose word do we have for the current market price? Only Mark's. This is an [Wikipedia:Over-the-counter_%28finance%29|OTC trade] that comes with an additional risk.
* Lawrence does not for a moment think about what will happen when the first large investors begin to take their profits, and instantly a huge supply will meet a shrinking demand. This moment can't be far away at this point in time as Mark told Lawrence that <i>information about the boom is spreading in town for a whole day already</i> <small>(this being a double-edged sword from his side as it should tell Lawrence that the risk is high now and most of the "book value profit" may already have been made, but at the same time presses Lawrence for time as he's late on the bandwagon)</small>.
All of this in combination makes Lawrence not that great a merchant. So why are there so many people around telling us that he was a much better merchant than they are? I can live with Lawrence being a loser, I just question the character consistency of this story.
As for Horo's reaction that [series:2063#628|Stretch] has issues with: It's not the tale that bothered Horo, it's the fact that <i>Lawrence hid this information from her</i> - and what's more, <i>he knew about the fate of Yoitsu all the time</i> <small>(as confirmed by the short flashback, showing Lawrence as child being told this very legend)</small>, thus undermining the foundation of their mutual trust. Horo with her centuries of experience and knowledge of human nature understands this instantly - and she tells Lawrence right in the face, only to see her suspicion confirmed! She's certainly overreacting at this point with the "lamb" comparison and all that stuff, but her whole future appears to be destroyed now <small>("solitude is a lethal disease" - remember?)</small>. So now she needs support by the "nice" Lawrence more than ever before, explicitly questioning what she means to him - and <i>he lets her down</i>, missing the opportunity to defend her once again <small>(Horo was so happy that Lawrence at least <i>tried</i> to act like a knight in the "silver arc")</small>. Her next few lines are sheer panic, and at the end of this scene she already regrets her words, knowing she went too far.<br />The interesting part of her story here is the scheme that Diana is said to have come up with, in order to test Lawrence's determination. As we see during episode 6 this plan comes with a significant risk of Lawrence failing to understand what happens, and he almost messed up the whole plan because of this. So why did Horo play along, only giving a slight hint in the form of these feathers? It must have been interesting for her as well to see how Lawrence would fight for her, if only to rebuild the trust between these two.<br />Another aspect that made me wonder was why Diana agreed to Horo purchasing the pyrite on credit <i>without any collaterals</i>. Horo could just have run away with the money, she's not a merchant; and Diana had no reason to make Horo wealthy. It's not like Diana would <i>need</i> the money, but <i>why would she interfere in this traders' battle in the first place</i>? Was it just becausethey both she and Horo weren't human? Or did Horo "pay" by telling her full story? Or was Batos giving Lawrence the password already sufficient? I would love to be allowed to observe the conversation between Diana and Horo in order to understand Diana's decision better.
<br />
Without knowing how this series will proceed, just a few notes about the <i>many</i> warning signs shown in this episode:
* Lawrence claims that there are <i>no rules in a battle between merchants</i>, and considers himself advantageous as Amati <i>is said to</i> act like a knight. But whose word do we have for this? Only Mark's. So what if Amati is playing the game with the same rules, and has Mark on his side already? Mark hinted at Lawrence probably being much wealthier than himself, so Mark might even be jealous of Lawrence's success as trader.
* Lawrence purchases pyrite from Mark. But why would Mark sell the pyrite if he believes it to still rise in price? Mark is a merchant; why would he dispense with what looks like a huge profit for those in the know? This should be an alarm signal for Lawrence already. Mark attempted to purchase the nails from Lawrence for 10.5 rumiones at first, then agreed to pay 13.75 rumiones; it's not like he wouldn't swindle Lawrence when given the opportunity.
* Lawrence invests <i>his whole assets</i> from the nails sale into a risky business <small>(after Horo asked whether he has become a coward after the armor trade!)</small>. He still makes the same mistake as [episode:1710#8|in the first season], putting all his eggs into one basket. Won't he ever learn that this is mere gambling instead of serious trading? Actually, we don't know how much additional money he owns at this point but had he been wealthier he could have purchased a more expensive good to make better use of his available transport capacity.
* Lawrence has been celebrating while others were trading. While not making him a bad merchant in general, this put him into a situation of <i>information deficit</i>. Wasn't this the very reason why he failed at the armor trade? So he's making the same mistake in this aspect as well. And this time he even knows it! <i>"Fool me once, shame on you; Fool me twice, shame on me."</i>
* Lawrence purchases a good of which he <i>knows</i> it is effectively worthless and is aware of the "dairy maid boom" bubble that has already formed <small>(as the market price is already <i>way</i> higher than he assumed)</small>. But whose word do we have for the current market price? Only Mark's. This is an [Wikipedia:Over-the-counter_%28finance%29|OTC trade] that comes with an additional risk.
* Lawrence does not for a moment think about what will happen when the first large investors begin to take their profits, and instantly a huge supply will meet a shrinking demand. This moment can't be far away at this point in time as Mark told Lawrence that <i>information about the boom is spreading in town for a whole day already</i> <small>(this being a double-edged sword from his side as it should tell Lawrence that the risk is high now and most of the "book value profit" may already have been made, but at the same time presses Lawrence for time as he's late on the bandwagon)</small>.
All of this in combination makes Lawrence not that great a merchant. So why are there so many people around telling us that he was a much better merchant than they are? I can live with Lawrence being a loser, I just question the character consistency of this story.
As for Horo's reaction that [series:2063#628|Stretch] has issues with: It's not the tale that bothered Horo, it's the fact that <i>Lawrence hid this information from her</i> - and what's more, <i>he knew about the fate of Yoitsu all the time</i> <small>(as confirmed by the short flashback, showing Lawrence as child being told this very legend)</small>, thus undermining the foundation of their mutual trust. Horo with her centuries of experience and knowledge of human nature understands this instantly - and she tells Lawrence right in the face, only to see her suspicion confirmed! She's certainly overreacting at this point with the "lamb" comparison and all that stuff, but her whole future appears to be destroyed now <small>("solitude is a lethal disease" - remember?)</small>. So now she needs support by the "nice" Lawrence more than ever before, explicitly questioning what she means to him - and <i>he lets her down</i>, missing the opportunity to defend her once again <small>(Horo was so happy that Lawrence at least <i>tried</i> to act like a knight in the "silver arc")</small>. Her next few lines are sheer panic, and at the end of this scene she already regrets her words, knowing she went too far.<br />The interesting part of her story here is the scheme that Diana is said to have come up with, in order to test Lawrence's determination. As we see during episode 6 this plan comes with a significant risk of Lawrence failing to understand what happens, and he almost messed up the whole plan because of this. So why did Horo play along, only giving a slight hint in the form of these feathers? It must have been interesting for her as well to see how Lawrence would fight for her, if only to rebuild the trust between these two.<br />Another aspect that made me wonder was why Diana agreed to Horo purchasing the pyrite on credit <i>without any collaterals</i>. Horo could just have run away with the money, she's not a merchant; and Diana had no reason to make Horo wealthy. It's not like Diana would <i>need</i> the money, but <i>why would she interfere in this traders' battle in the first place</i>? Was it just because
