| In front of the Merchant Guild, Amati challenges Lawrence, proclaiming he will pay for Holo's falsified debt of 1,000 silver coins and then propose to her, certain that she will leave Lawrence. Lawrence researches Amati, discovering that his plan to pay back the debt relies on the sale of pyrite. Back at the inn, Holo discovers and reads a letter for Lawrence containing an explanation of the legend about the bear that destroyed Yoitsu. |
[2010-03-01, Devil Doll]
Warning: Spoilers of story development until episode 6!
Without knowing how this series will proceed, just a few notes about the many warning signs shown in this episode:
- Lawrence claims that there are no rules in a battle between merchants, and considers himself advantageous as Amati is said to act like a knight. But whose word do we have for this? Only Mark's. So what if Amati is playing the game with the same rules, and has Mark on his side already? Mark hinted at Lawrence probably being much wealthier than himself, so Mark might even be jealous of Lawrence's success as trader.
- Lawrence purchases pyrite from Mark. But why would Mark sell the pyrite if he believes it to still rise in price? Mark is a merchant; why would he dispense with what looks like a huge profit for those in the know? This should be an alarm signal for Lawrence already. Mark attempted to purchase the nails from Lawrence for 10.5 rumiones at first, then agreed to pay 13.75 rumiones; it's not like he wouldn't swindle Lawrence when given the opportunity.
- Lawrence invests his whole assets from the nails sale into a risky business (after Horo asked whether he has become a coward after the armor trade!). He still makes the same mistake as in the first season, putting all his eggs into one basket. Won't he ever learn that this is mere gambling instead of serious trading? Actually, we don't know how much additional money he owns at this point but had he been wealthier he could have purchased a more expensive good to make better use of his available transport capacity.
- Lawrence has been celebrating while others were trading. While not making him a bad merchant in general, this put him into a situation of information deficit. Wasn't this the very reason why he failed at the armor trade? So he's making the same mistake in this aspect as well. And this time he even knows it! "Fool me once, shame on you; Fool me twice, shame on me."
- Lawrence purchases a good of which he knows it is effectively worthless and is aware of the "dairy maid boom" bubble that has already formed (as the market price is already way higher than he assumed). But whose word do we have for the current market price? Only Mark's. This is an ↗OTC trade that comes with an additional risk.
- Lawrence does not for a moment think about what will happen when the first large investors begin to take their profits, and instantly a huge supply will meet a shrinking demand. This moment can't be far away at this point in time as Mark told Lawrence that information about the boom is spreading in town for a whole day already (this being a double-edged sword from his side as it should tell Lawrence that the risk is high now and most of the "book value profit" may already have been made, but at the same time presses Lawrence for time as he's late on the bandwagon).
All of this in combination makes Lawrence not that great a merchant. So why are there so many people around telling us that he was a much better merchant than they are? I can live with Lawrence being a loser, I just question the character consistency of this story. |
